Forecasting the Production of Centrifugal Sugar in Pakistan using ARIMA Modelling

Abstract

Throughout history, people have been intrigued by what lies ahead. The purpose of this study is to develop an ARIMA model that can predict Pakistan's annual sugar production between the years 1974 and 2021, as well as provide forecasts for upcoming years. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was found to be the best fit based on the minimum value of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the 95% confidence interval sugar forecast for Pakistan from 2021 to 2030, the anticipated sugar production in 2030 is 6881 million tons. Additionally, this study uncovered a rising trend in sugar production in Pakistan.